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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.73+5.00vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.38+4.98vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.38+4.89vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.22+3.06vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.16+2.82vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.85-0.73vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.43+3.90vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+0.87vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-1.72vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.27+0.82vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.58vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.96-3.12vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.09-1.58vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.57-2.55vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.07-1.94vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.07-3.67vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.41-2.59vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.20-6.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.0Brown University2.7310.7%1st Place
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6.98College of Charleston2.388.5%1st Place
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7.89Bowdoin College2.387.1%1st Place
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7.06Tufts University2.228.9%1st Place
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7.82University of Pennsylvania2.167.8%1st Place
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5.27Yale University2.8514.1%1st Place
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10.9Roger Williams University1.433.1%1st Place
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8.87St. Mary's College of Maryland2.056.2%1st Place
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7.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.2%1st Place
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10.82George Washington University1.272.8%1st Place
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9.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.5%1st Place
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8.88Cornell University1.964.9%1st Place
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11.42North Carolina State University1.092.5%1st Place
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11.45Old Dominion University1.572.6%1st Place
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13.06Boston University1.072.1%1st Place
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12.33Northeastern University1.072.0%1st Place
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14.41SUNY Maritime College0.411.4%1st Place
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11.15University of Wisconsin1.202.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 14.1% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jed Lory | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 4.5% |
| Charlie Anderson | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| Winborne Majette | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 6.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% |
| Porter Bell | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 19.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 34.0% |
| Gavin Dempsey | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.