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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.90+9.64vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+4.09vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.57+5.05vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.66+3.32vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.62+2.56vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23-0.65vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.50+1.08vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University2.01+1.95vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.18+0.31vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College2.46-1.48vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University0.94+3.11vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-2.96vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.93-2.74vs Predicted
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14Florida State University1.97-4.08vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.91-4.58vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-8.49vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.07-3.34vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.43-2.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.64George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.09SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.05Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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7.32University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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7.56Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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5.35University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.08Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.95North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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9.31Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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8.52Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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14.11Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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9.04University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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10.26Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.92Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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10.42Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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7.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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13.66University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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15.21University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 2.9% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Mowry | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Trevor Davis | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 13.4% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Adam Larson | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Walter Henry | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| Matthew King | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 18.3% | 25.3% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 0.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 2.2% |
| Joey Meagher | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Will Murray | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 19.2% | 17.3% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 10.9% | 17.9% | 39.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.