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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+6.66vs Predicted
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2Florida State University1.97+8.38vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University2.01+7.23vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.91+6.22vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.50+2.95vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.93+4.31vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+1.65vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.93+2.28vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.62-1.52vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.90+0.65vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.07+2.57vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.46-3.52vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.06-7.21vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.66-6.86vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island3.23-9.68vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University0.94-2.05vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.43-1.61vs Predicted
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18Boston University2.57-10.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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10.38Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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10.23North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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10.22Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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7.95Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.31Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.65University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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10.28Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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7.48Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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10.65George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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13.57University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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8.48Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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5.79SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.14University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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5.32University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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13.95Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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15.39University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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7.55Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Joey Meagher | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 2.2% |
| Adam Larson | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 1.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 18.3% | 17.4% |
| Walter Henry | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Benton Amthor | 12.9% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.3% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 13.4% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew King | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 19.6% | 20.2% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 16.2% | 43.4% |
| Tyler Mowry | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.