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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+6.67vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+4.02vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.93+7.54vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University2.01+5.84vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.90+5.30vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University0.94+7.92vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.66+0.35vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.91+2.36vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.46-0.88vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.57-2.06vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.50-2.87vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.93-1.34vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.62-5.58vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin0.43+1.13vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-6.42vs Predicted
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16Florida State University1.97-5.78vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.07-3.35vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island3.23-12.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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6.02SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.54Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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9.84North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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10.3George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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13.92Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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7.35University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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10.36Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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8.12Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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7.94Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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8.13Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.66Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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7.42Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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15.13University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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8.58University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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10.22Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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13.65University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
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5.15University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.4% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 1.7% |
| Adam Larson | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% |
| Matthew King | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 18.9% | 21.5% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Walter Henry | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Mowry | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 17.1% | 39.1% |
| Chris Kayda | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.8% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 13.4% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 13.4% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.