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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+6.36vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+3.74vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.91+7.32vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.66+3.01vs Predicted
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5Boston University2.57+2.36vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23-0.91vs Predicted
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7North Carolina State University2.01+2.58vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.93+1.86vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University0.94+4.65vs Predicted
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10Florida State University1.97+0.02vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.62-3.65vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-3.37vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.96+0.34vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.93-4.32vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.43+0.05vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.50-8.25vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.90-6.81vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan1.07-4.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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5.74SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.32Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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7.01University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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7.36Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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5.09University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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9.58North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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9.86Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.65Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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10.02Florida State University1.970.0%1st Place
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7.35Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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8.63University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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13.34Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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9.68Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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15.05University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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7.75Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.19George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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13.02University of Michigan1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 2.0% |
| Atlee Kohl | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Mowry | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 14.2% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larson | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| Matthew King | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| Joey Meagher | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 17.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 17.5% | 37.0% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.