← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Tufts University2.43+6.28vs Predicted
-
2University of Miami2.27+5.88vs Predicted
-
3Webb Institute1.69+7.38vs Predicted
-
4George Washington University2.35+3.24vs Predicted
-
5Boston University2.07+3.43vs Predicted
-
6Florida State University2.38+1.25vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College2.19+1.01vs Predicted
-
8Jacksonville University1.65+2.17vs Predicted
-
9University of Rhode Island2.07-0.60vs Predicted
-
10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.58vs Predicted
-
11Connecticut College1.85-1.44vs Predicted
-
12Cornell University2.32-4.22vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University1.90-3.95vs Predicted
-
14Old Dominion University1.24-2.41vs Predicted
-
15University of Wisconsin1.04-2.32vs Predicted
-
16North Carolina State University1.17-3.71vs Predicted
-
17University of Michigan0.53-2.41vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-7.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.28Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
-
7.88University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
-
10.38Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
7.24George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
-
8.43Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
-
7.25Florida State University2.380.1%1st Place
-
8.01SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
-
10.17Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
-
8.4University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
-
7.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
-
9.56Connecticut College1.850.1%1st Place
-
7.78Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
-
9.05Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
-
11.59Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
-
12.68University of Wisconsin1.040.0%1st Place
-
12.29North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
-
14.59University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
-
11.0University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% |
| Owen Timms | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Micky Munns | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Emily Allen | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% |
| Miles Williams | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Harris Padegs | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 9.8% |
| Ryan Tatelbaum | 2.3% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 15.5% |
| Harrison Bailey | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 13.5% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 15.5% | 36.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.