← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Tufts University2.43+6.32vs Predicted
-
2University of Rhode Island2.07+6.70vs Predicted
-
3Webb Institute1.69+7.41vs Predicted
-
4University of Miami1.86+5.33vs Predicted
-
5Boston University2.07+3.50vs Predicted
-
6Jacksonville University1.65+4.34vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University1.90+2.26vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College2.35-0.72vs Predicted
-
9Florida State University2.38-1.83vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+1.52vs Predicted
-
11Old Dominion University1.24+1.11vs Predicted
-
12Connecticut College1.85-2.21vs Predicted
-
13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-5.89vs Predicted
-
14North Carolina State University1.65-3.98vs Predicted
-
15Cornell University2.32-7.55vs Predicted
-
16George Washington University2.35-8.55vs Predicted
-
17University of Wisconsin1.04-4.09vs Predicted
-
18University of Michigan0.53-3.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.32Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
-
8.7University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
-
10.41Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
9.33University of Miami1.860.0%1st Place
-
8.5Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
-
10.34Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
-
9.26Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
-
7.28SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
-
7.17Florida State University2.380.1%1st Place
-
11.52University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
-
12.11Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
-
9.79Connecticut College1.850.0%1st Place
-
7.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
-
10.02North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
-
7.45Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
-
7.45George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
-
12.91University of Wisconsin1.040.0%1st Place
-
14.33University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Miles Williams | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% |
| Steven Hardee | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Micky Munns | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Emily Allen | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Ted McDonough | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 8.6% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 12.1% |
| Harris Padegs | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| Sophia Devling | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Owen Timms | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Tatelbaum | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 18.5% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 34.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.