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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+6.16vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.65+8.27vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.35+4.26vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.85+5.05vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.43+1.79vs Predicted
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6Florida State University2.38+0.99vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.07+1.22vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.07+0.18vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.32-1.88vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.90-0.79vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.86-1.72vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-0.65vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.17-1.17vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.24-2.61vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-4.88vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.04-3.40vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.69-6.98vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.53-3.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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10.27Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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7.26SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.05Connecticut College1.850.1%1st Place
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6.79Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.99Florida State University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.22University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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8.18Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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7.12Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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9.21Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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9.28University of Miami1.860.1%1st Place
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11.35University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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11.83North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
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11.39Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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10.12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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12.6University of Wisconsin1.040.0%1st Place
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10.02Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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14.16University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Emily Allen | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Harris Padegs | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.5% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Miles Williams | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Micky Munns | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.7% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| Steven Hardee | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Ted McDonough | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% |
| Harrison Bailey | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 11.3% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% |
| Ryan Tatelbaum | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 13.9% | 15.6% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% |
| Brody Schwartz | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 31.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.