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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.35+6.29vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.43+4.96vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.07+5.51vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.85+5.02vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.90+3.85vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.07+2.27vs Predicted
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7University of Miami1.86+2.12vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.12vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.17+3.00vs Predicted
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10Florida State University2.38-2.72vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.32-3.65vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-1.47vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.65-3.12vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.69-4.47vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.24-3.32vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.53-1.59vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-5.89vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.04-5.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.29SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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6.96Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.51Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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9.02Connecticut College1.850.1%1st Place
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8.85Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.27University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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9.12University of Miami1.860.1%1st Place
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6.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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12.0North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
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7.28Florida State University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.35Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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10.53St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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9.88Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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9.53Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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11.68Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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14.41University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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11.11University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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12.31University of Wisconsin1.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Micky Munns | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Harris Padegs | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Miles Williams | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Steven Hardee | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Harrison Bailey | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.8% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 9.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% |
| Emily Allen | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 9.4% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 34.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% |
| Ryan Tatelbaum | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 12.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.