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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.69+9.27vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.43+5.17vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.07+5.69vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.90+5.08vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University1.65+5.12vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.13vs Predicted
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7Florida State University2.38+0.18vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+2.26vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.09-0.67vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.35-2.45vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+0.32vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.07-3.19vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan0.53+1.25vs Predicted
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14University of Miami1.86-4.89vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin1.04-2.30vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.32-8.55vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.17-4.63vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.85-8.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.27Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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7.17Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.69Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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9.08Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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10.12Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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7.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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7.18Florida State University2.380.1%1st Place
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10.26St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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8.33Old Dominion University2.090.1%1st Place
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7.55SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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11.32University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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8.81University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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14.25University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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9.11University of Miami1.860.1%1st Place
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12.7University of Wisconsin1.040.0%1st Place
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7.45Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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12.37North Carolina State University1.170.0%1st Place
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9.22Connecticut College1.850.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payne Donaldson | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Micky Munns | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| Emily Allen | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 4.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 6.8% |
| Miles Williams | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 34.5% |
| Steven Hardee | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| Ryan Tatelbaum | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 16.4% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Harrison Bailey | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 14.6% |
| Harris Padegs | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.