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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+9.64vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.36vs Predicted
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3University of Miami1.86+6.67vs Predicted
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4Florida State University2.38+3.17vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.43+2.05vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.69+4.13vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.07+1.50vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.90+1.16vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.09-0.59vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.65+0.59vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+0.38vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.85-2.21vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.32-5.67vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College2.35-6.95vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.07-6.54vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University1.48-4.90vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.53-2.35vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.04-5.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.64St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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7.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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9.67University of Miami1.860.1%1st Place
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7.17Florida State University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.05Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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10.13Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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8.5University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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9.16Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.41Old Dominion University2.090.1%1st Place
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10.59Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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11.38University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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9.79Connecticut College1.850.0%1st Place
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7.33Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.05SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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8.46Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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11.1North Carolina State University1.480.0%1st Place
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14.65University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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12.59University of Wisconsin1.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.9% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 5.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Steven Hardee | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% |
| Miles Williams | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Emily Allen | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.3% |
| Harris Padegs | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Micky Munns | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Robert Chase | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.4% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 39.1% |
| Ryan Tatelbaum | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 14.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.