← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1SUNY Maritime College2.35+6.37vs Predicted
-
2University of Miami1.86+7.41vs Predicted
-
3Tufts University2.43+4.01vs Predicted
-
4Florida State University2.38+2.94vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.99vs Predicted
-
6Boston University2.07+2.28vs Predicted
-
7Webb Institute1.69+2.90vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University1.90+0.88vs Predicted
-
9Jacksonville University1.65+0.97vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+0.40vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University2.32-3.63vs Predicted
-
12University of Rhode Island2.07-3.44vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-2.18vs Predicted
-
14North Carolina State University1.48-3.61vs Predicted
-
15Connecticut College0.84-1.86vs Predicted
-
16Old Dominion University2.09-7.74vs Predicted
-
17University of Michigan0.05-1.43vs Predicted
-
18University of Wisconsin1.17-6.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.37SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
-
9.41University of Miami1.860.0%1st Place
-
7.01Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
-
6.94Florida State University2.380.1%1st Place
-
6.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
-
8.28Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
-
9.9Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
8.88Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
-
9.97Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
-
10.4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
-
7.37Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
-
8.56University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
-
10.82University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
-
10.39North Carolina State University1.480.0%1st Place
-
13.14Connecticut College0.840.0%1st Place
-
8.26Old Dominion University2.090.1%1st Place
-
15.57University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
-
11.75University of Wisconsin1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Steven Hardee | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.6% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Micky Munns | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Emily Allen | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 3.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Miles Williams | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 5.1% |
| Robert Chase | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.0% |
| Jean-Michel Bus | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 16.8% | 16.4% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 14.6% | 51.0% |
| Quinn Kaiser | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 7.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.