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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+9.45vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.90+7.28vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+4.54vs Predicted
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4Florida State University2.38+3.04vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.43+1.93vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.69+3.98vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.65+3.14vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.07+0.29vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.10vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.48+1.11vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.82vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.35-4.41vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.27-5.57vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.07-5.90vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.85-5.76vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.24-4.08vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.17-4.75vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.05-2.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.45St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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9.28Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.54Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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7.04Florida State University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.93Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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9.98Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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10.14Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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8.29University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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11.1University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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11.11North Carolina State University1.480.0%1st Place
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7.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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7.59SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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7.43University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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8.1Boston University2.070.1%1st Place
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9.24Connecticut College1.850.1%1st Place
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11.92Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.25University of Wisconsin1.170.0%1st Place
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15.44University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 4.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 9.5% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% |
| Emily Allen | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% |
| Miles Williams | 6.2% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Ted McDonough | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 5.5% |
| Robert Chase | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 5.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Dennis | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Micky Munns | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| Harris Padegs | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 9.2% |
| Quinn Kaiser | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 10.6% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 14.4% | 48.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.