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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+6.72vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.82+3.86vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43+4.18vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.69-0.46vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.40+5.76vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.38+4.85vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.81-1.02vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.45-0.75vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.33-1.44vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-2.10vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.85-1.64vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.37-4.27vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.25-4.81vs Predicted
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14Cornell University0.73-4.37vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.47-4.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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5.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.820.1%1st Place
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7.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.1%1st Place
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3.54Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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10.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.400.0%1st Place
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10.85Cornell University0.380.0%1st Place
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5.98Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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7.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.450.1%1st Place
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7.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.330.1%1st Place
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7.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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9.36Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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7.73Cornell University1.370.1%1st Place
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8.19Cornell University1.250.1%1st Place
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9.63Cornell University0.730.0%1st Place
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10.5Cornell University0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| Pete McGriff | 9.5% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Bridget Green | 23.9% | 21.6% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Harrod | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 21.0% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 20.9% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 11.0% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Walker | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
| Collin Porter | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% |
| Maya Conway | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 9.7% |
| Sophia Peck | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Jennifer Permenter | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% |
| Ethan Stoffman | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.1% |
| Ava Grace Sannino | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.