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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33+2.72vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.46+1.40vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley-0.66+3.40vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.83+2.90vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University-1.53+4.55vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.12-1.19vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.90+0.10vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.24+0.23vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.78+5.31vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-2.35+2.75vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-2.12+0.67vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-2.97+3.19vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-2.05-1.34vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.99-2.77vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California-2.42-2.11vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-3.11-0.45vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz-3.14-1.31vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-2.04-6.30vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-3.16-3.19vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-2.58-6.38vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-4.29-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.2%1st Place
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3.4California Poly Maritime Academy0.460.2%1st Place
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6.4University of California at Berkeley-0.660.1%1st Place
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6.9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.830.1%1st Place
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9.55Arizona State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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4.81University of California at Santa Cruz-0.120.1%1st Place
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7.1University of California at Berkeley-0.900.1%1st Place
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8.23Arizona State University-1.240.0%1st Place
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14.31Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.780.0%1st Place
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12.75University of California at Los Angeles-2.350.0%1st Place
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11.67University of California at Davis-2.120.0%1st Place
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15.19Arizona State University-2.970.0%1st Place
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11.66University of California at San Diego-2.050.0%1st Place
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11.23University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
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12.89University of Southern California-2.420.0%1st Place
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15.55University of California at Los Angeles-3.110.0%1st Place
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15.69University of California at Santa Cruz-3.140.0%1st Place
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11.7San Diego State University-2.040.0%1st Place
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15.81University of California at Davis-3.160.0%1st Place
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13.62University of California at Los Angeles-2.580.0%1st Place
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18.81University of California at San Diego-4.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Milne | 20.4% | 19.4% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conner Skewes | 23.9% | 19.3% | 16.0% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Jacobs | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dante Massaro | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Kenealy | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Summer Drake | 12.7% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fiona Wu | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Hirz | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexis Di Stefano | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 3.5% |
| John Gallagher | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| Melody Quevedo | 2.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Hayden shaw | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 7.9% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Liam Hoole | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Siobhan Dornfried | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 8.8% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 9.6% |
| Ryan Giorgianni | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Bryson Dort | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 10.9% |
| Andrew Bistras | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
| natasha chiotis | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 14.9% | 50.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.