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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+7.43vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+3.36vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.65+7.37vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.70+1.71vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.20+7.50vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.59+4.48vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+6.22vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.72+8.63vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.10-0.81vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy0.74-0.15vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California1.67-4.89vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-0.54+3.75vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles1.06-4.55vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.74+5.69vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-3.95vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego0.20-3.52vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley0.71-6.91vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-1.69vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-0.58-3.33vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego0.50-9.03vs Predicted
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21University of Southern California-0.10-7.24vs Predicted
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22San Diego State University-0.01-8.38vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-2.32-1.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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5.36University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.1%1st Place
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10.37University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.0%1st Place
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5.71University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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12.5University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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10.48Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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13.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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16.63University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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8.19University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.1%1st Place
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9.85California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.0%1st Place
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6.11University of Southern California1.670.1%1st Place
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15.75San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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8.45University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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19.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.740.0%1st Place
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11.05University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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12.48University of California at San Diego0.200.0%1st Place
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10.09University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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16.31University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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15.67University of California at San Diego-0.580.0%1st Place
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10.97University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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13.76University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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13.62San Diego State University-0.010.0%1st Place
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21.29University of California at San Diego-2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Ponting | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 13.8% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Grant Janov | 13.0% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Boylan | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 15.7% | 11.9% | 4.0% |
| Molly Coghlin | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Louttit | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Davis Winsor | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 2.7% |
| Marianna Shand | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 26.6% | 27.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| John Alexander | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 3.6% |
| Tobie Bloom | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 3.1% |
| Noah Barton | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Ian Collignon | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Michael Nodini | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 8.5% | 16.8% | 56.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.