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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+4.32vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.67+4.01vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+5.51vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.59+6.57vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.70+0.80vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.74+3.78vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.06+1.22vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California-0.10+6.02vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.20+3.40vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+3.29vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.10-2.54vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-1.21vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.71-2.93vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-0.54+1.51vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-0.72+1.74vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley0.20-3.52vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz0.65-6.62vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.74+2.01vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-3.17vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-0.01-6.61vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-0.58-5.02vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego0.50-10.80vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-2.32-1.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.32University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.1%1st Place
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6.01University of Southern California1.670.1%1st Place
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8.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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10.57Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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5.8University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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9.78California Poly Maritime Academy0.740.0%1st Place
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8.22University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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14.02University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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12.4University of California at San Diego0.200.0%1st Place
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13.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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8.46University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.1%1st Place
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10.79University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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10.07University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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15.51San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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16.74University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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12.48University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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10.38University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.0%1st Place
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20.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.740.0%1st Place
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15.83University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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13.39San Diego State University-0.010.0%1st Place
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15.98University of California at San Diego-0.580.0%1st Place
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11.2University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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21.25University of California at San Diego-2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 12.8% | 15.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Davis Winsor | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Boylan | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Grant Janov | 11.8% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Louttit | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| John Alexander | 2.7% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Samuel Groom | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Molly Coghlin | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 2.7% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 5.7% |
| Wilton Lawton | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Colin Olson | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 29.6% | 27.9% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 4.3% |
| Ian Collignon | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Tobie Bloom | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 3.0% |
| Noah Barton | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Nodini | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 21.4% | 53.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.