← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+7.60vs Predicted
-
2University of Southern California0.64+5.67vs Predicted
-
3San Diego State University0.17+6.60vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Los Angeles1.30+1.31vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-0.93vs Predicted
-
6California Poly Maritime Academy2.07-2.76vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91+7.10vs Predicted
-
8University of California at San Diego0.01+2.47vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Berkeley-0.55+3.71vs Predicted
-
10University of Southern California-0.19+1.10vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Santa Barbara-0.14+0.24vs Predicted
-
12Arizona State University0.32-3.01vs Predicted
-
13San Diego State University-1.80+4.99vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Los Angeles0.11-4.40vs Predicted
-
15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26+1.06vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Berkeley0.07-5.92vs Predicted
-
17University of California at San Diego-1.71+0.65vs Predicted
-
18University of California at San Diego-0.68-4.43vs Predicted
-
19University of California at Santa Cruz-0.53-6.56vs Predicted
-
20University of California at Davis-0.93-5.59vs Predicted
-
21University of California at Los Angeles-1.95-2.69vs Predicted
-
22University of California at San Diego-2.02-3.36vs Predicted
-
23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56-2.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
-
7.67University of Southern California0.640.1%1st Place
-
9.6San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
-
5.31University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
-
4.07University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.2%1st Place
-
3.24California Poly Maritime Academy2.070.3%1st Place
-
14.1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
-
10.47University of California at San Diego0.010.0%1st Place
-
12.71University of California at Berkeley-0.550.0%1st Place
-
11.1University of Southern California-0.190.0%1st Place
-
11.24University of California at Santa Barbara-0.140.0%1st Place
-
8.99Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
-
17.99San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
-
9.6University of California at Los Angeles0.110.0%1st Place
-
16.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
-
10.08University of California at Berkeley0.070.0%1st Place
-
17.65University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
-
13.57University of California at San Diego-0.680.0%1st Place
-
12.44University of California at Santa Cruz-0.530.0%1st Place
-
14.41University of California at Davis-0.930.0%1st Place
-
18.31University of California at Los Angeles-1.950.0%1st Place
-
18.64University of California at San Diego-2.020.0%1st Place
-
20.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Case | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 11.3% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 19.1% | 16.0% | 15.9% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brock Paquin | 26.6% | 20.0% | 17.2% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Svenja Leonard | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Miles Kirkbride | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 11.3% |
| Zack Taylor | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Macy Rowe | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 4.2% |
| Enzo Cremers | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 10.8% |
| Sebastien Franck | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| karl zoghbi | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Jonah Brees | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Deven Douglas | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 16.1% | 14.3% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 17.4% | 20.0% |
| Ryan Schackel | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 36.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.