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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.07+2.33vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California-0.19+9.12vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.35vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.32+4.84vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-1.02vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University0.17+3.34vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.55+5.38vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.64-0.26vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.11+0.74vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara-0.14+0.78vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.07-0.82vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-3.56vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.53-0.34vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91-0.07vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.01-4.58vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.68-2.75vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-0.93-2.66vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09+0.80vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.71-1.91vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-1.80-2.38vs Predicted
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21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56-1.06vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-1.95-3.74vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-2.02-4.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.33California Poly Maritime Academy2.070.2%1st Place
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11.12University of Southern California-0.190.0%1st Place
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5.35University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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8.84Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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3.98University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.2%1st Place
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9.34San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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12.38University of California at Berkeley-0.550.0%1st Place
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7.74University of Southern California0.640.1%1st Place
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9.74University of California at Los Angeles0.110.0%1st Place
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10.78University of California at Santa Barbara-0.140.0%1st Place
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10.18University of California at Berkeley0.070.0%1st Place
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8.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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12.66University of California at Santa Cruz-0.530.0%1st Place
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13.93University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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10.42University of California at San Diego0.010.0%1st Place
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13.25University of California at San Diego-0.680.0%1st Place
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14.34University of California at Davis-0.930.0%1st Place
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18.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
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17.09University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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17.62San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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19.94Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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18.26University of California at Los Angeles-1.950.0%1st Place
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18.47University of California at San Diego-2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Paquin | 23.3% | 22.1% | 17.0% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miles Kirkbride | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 11.6% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 19.0% | 18.0% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zack Taylor | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Enzo Cremers | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| karl zoghbi | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| Svenja Leonard | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sebastien Franck | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Jonah Brees | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Chloe Schofield | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 16.9% | 18.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 7.6% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 9.5% |
| Ryan Schackel | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 17.0% | 33.5% |
| Deven Douglas | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 17.8% | 14.2% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 14.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.