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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.96+8.57vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.77+6.88vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.45+3.91vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+5.18vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.88vs Predicted
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6Florida State University1.69+3.91vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.28+0.78vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.22+2.36vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.78-1.15vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.68-3.43vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College1.17+0.43vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.71-1.80vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.59+0.06vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.76vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.82-6.45vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy2.60-9.44vs Predicted
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170.68-3.12vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.00-4.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.57Cornell University1.964.0%1st Place
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8.88University of Pennsylvania1.775.1%1st Place
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6.91Harvard University2.458.8%1st Place
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9.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.3%1st Place
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7.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.9%1st Place
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9.91Florida State University1.695.0%1st Place
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7.78Tulane University2.287.5%1st Place
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10.36Brown University2.224.7%1st Place
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7.85University of Rhode Island2.787.2%1st Place
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6.57Roger Williams University2.6810.8%1st Place
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11.43Eckerd College1.172.3%1st Place
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10.2Webb Institute1.714.5%1st Place
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13.06Northeastern University1.592.3%1st Place
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9.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.7%1st Place
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8.55George Washington University1.826.2%1st Place
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6.56U. S. Naval Academy2.6010.1%1st Place
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13.880.681.4%1st Place
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13.2Connecticut College1.002.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winborne Majette | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| Robby Meek | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Peter Foley | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% |
| Kelly Holthus | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Mason Stang | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Vieira | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 7.4% |
| Calvin Schmid | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 20.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jack Homa | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 15.4% | 27.2% |
| William Hurd | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 21.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.