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📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Kyle Pfrang 9.2% 10.7% 11.5% 10.2% 11.2% 10.6% 8.0% 7.4% 6.8% 7.1% 4.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Joslin 14.1% 13.3% 12.7% 14.1% 9.9% 10.0% 7.4% 7.0% 5.3% 3.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Owen Bannasch 8.3% 8.0% 9.2% 10.4% 10.5% 10.0% 8.7% 11.2% 8.9% 5.9% 4.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Nash 7.1% 7.6% 8.9% 9.7% 9.1% 9.9% 10.5% 8.9% 7.8% 8.7% 4.6% 5.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Clark Morris 6.1% 6.1% 8.4% 8.4% 8.6% 9.2% 10.5% 10.2% 7.6% 9.2% 7.8% 4.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Katherine Simcoe 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 3.5% 4.4% 7.3% 11.5% 18.2% 38.5% 6.7%
Porter Bell 4.3% 6.4% 5.9% 4.5% 7.0% 7.2% 9.2% 8.7% 9.3% 10.2% 10.1% 8.5% 5.9% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Lauren Russler 7.9% 9.8% 8.1% 9.9% 10.7% 11.5% 9.0% 7.5% 8.6% 6.8% 5.5% 2.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Guthrie Braun 27.2% 19.2% 16.1% 12.2% 9.3% 6.8% 4.8% 1.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Blake Vogel 2.9% 2.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.3% 4.1% 5.5% 5.5% 7.7% 10.1% 12.7% 14.3% 13.5% 8.7% 2.8% 0.3%
Katherine McNamara 7.2% 7.7% 8.5% 9.0% 8.4% 8.5% 10.2% 10.3% 9.7% 8.1% 5.3% 4.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Zachary Klusky 1.4% 3.6% 2.5% 2.2% 3.3% 4.3% 4.0% 7.2% 7.0% 7.3% 10.7% 12.5% 14.5% 12.4% 6.6% 0.5%
Alexander Horne 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 2.5% 3.2% 3.3% 3.7% 4.6% 7.1% 6.9% 11.2% 12.4% 15.4% 14.5% 10.4% 0.8%
Caitlin Derby 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 2.5% 3.6% 2.3% 4.9% 5.3% 7.2% 7.4% 11.3% 13.3% 14.1% 14.8% 7.7% 0.6%
Sean Lund 0.9% 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 1.1% 1.6% 1.7% 2.3% 3.2% 4.7% 5.0% 9.3% 13.9% 23.5% 26.4% 3.1%
Javi Muliro 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 2.4% 6.4% 87.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.