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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.30+4.58vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.67+2.67vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.17+3.00vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.10+2.35vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.93+1.76vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan-0.52+7.23vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.60+0.80vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.13-1.98vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.33-5.76vs Predicted
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10Tufts University0.93-0.21vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.01-4.53vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University0.74-1.74vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.49-2.07vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.57-3.33vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.13-2.47vs Predicted
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16University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.75-0.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.58Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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4.67Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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6.0Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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6.35University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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6.76Tufts University1.930.1%1st Place
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13.23University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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7.8Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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6.02Bowdoin College2.130.1%1st Place
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3.24Brown University3.330.3%1st Place
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9.79Tufts University0.930.0%1st Place
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6.47Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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10.26Northeastern University0.740.0%1st Place
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10.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.490.0%1st Place
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10.67University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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12.53University of New Hampshire-0.130.0%1st Place
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15.71University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pfrang | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 14.1% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Clark Morris | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 18.2% | 38.5% | 6.7% |
| Porter Bell | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Russler | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 27.2% | 19.2% | 16.1% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Vogel | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| Katherine McNamara | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Klusky | 1.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 0.5% |
| Alexander Horne | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 14.5% | 10.4% | 0.8% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 7.7% | 0.6% |
| Sean Lund | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 23.5% | 26.4% | 3.1% |
| Javi Muliro | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 6.4% | 87.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.