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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+5.31vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+5.41vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+6.47vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23+2.83vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+3.91vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.00+1.75vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.54-1.29vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.62+1.10vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.46+0.90vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.12+1.51vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University1.74+1.70vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.57-2.22vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.53-3.59vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.47-8.21vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.11-0.38vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont2.11-4.71vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.65-7.79vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy0.79-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.31Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.41Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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9.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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6.83University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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7.75Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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5.71Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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9.1Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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9.9Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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11.51Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
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12.7Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
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9.78Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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9.41Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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5.79Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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14.62Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.110.0%1st Place
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11.29University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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9.21Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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15.3Maine Maritime Academy0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.2% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Walter Henry | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Will Priebe | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 5.3% |
| Nils Tullberg | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 11.0% |
| Tyler Mowry | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Robert Bragg | 11.9% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Egeli | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 21.2% | 27.7% |
| Connell Phillipps | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 4.9% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Nalu Ho | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 19.6% | 41.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.