← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University3.42+5.35vs Predicted
-
2Dartmouth College3.47+4.05vs Predicted
-
3Roger Williams University3.00+4.86vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University2.62+5.11vs Predicted
-
5Boston University2.57+4.33vs Predicted
-
6Connecticut College2.46+3.93vs Predicted
-
7Harvard University3.54-1.29vs Predicted
-
8Yale University3.12-0.83vs Predicted
-
9University of Vermont2.11+2.26vs Predicted
-
10Boston College2.53-0.15vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-1.88vs Predicted
-
12University of Rhode Island3.23-4.82vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-3.87vs Predicted
-
14Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.11+0.42vs Predicted
-
15Northeastern University2.12-3.80vs Predicted
-
16Salve Regina University1.74-3.23vs Predicted
-
17Bowdoin College2.65-7.77vs Predicted
-
18Maine Maritime Academy0.79-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.35Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
-
6.05Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
-
7.86Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
-
9.11Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
-
9.33Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
-
9.93Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
-
5.71Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
-
7.17Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
-
11.26University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
-
9.85Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
-
9.12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
-
7.18University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
-
9.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
-
14.42Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.110.0%1st Place
-
11.2Northeastern University2.120.0%1st Place
-
12.77Salve Regina University1.740.0%1st Place
-
9.23Bowdoin College2.650.0%1st Place
-
15.34Maine Maritime Academy0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Walter Henry | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.7% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Connell Phillipps | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 4.5% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Tyler Egeli | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 11.4% | 20.9% | 26.0% |
| Will Priebe | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 3.8% |
| Nils Tullberg | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 10.6% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Nalu Ho | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 11.0% | 16.5% | 42.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.