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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.28+5.98vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.23+2.18vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.07+0.69vs Predicted
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52.64+1.05vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+0.72vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.12-2.28vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.98-0.22vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.03-1.13vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.30-2.95vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.89-2.54vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.52-2.46vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.72-1.44vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-4.95vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.16-4.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.98Brown University2.280.1%1st Place
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4.18Dartmouth College3.230.2%1st Place
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4.69Boston College3.070.2%1st Place
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6.052.640.1%1st Place
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6.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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4.72Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.78Tufts University1.980.0%1st Place
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7.87Bowdoin College2.030.1%1st Place
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7.05Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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8.46University of Vermont1.890.0%1st Place
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9.54Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
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11.56Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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9.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.0%1st Place
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10.36Salve Regina University1.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaire McCarthy | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 17.2% | 16.8% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 15.1% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Dana Haig | 8.6% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Emily Bornarth | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 14.6% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Chloe Holder | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 3.4% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 4.3% |
| Sarah Burn | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Grace Gear | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.8% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 12.8% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 17.8% | 38.7% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 8.8% |
| Pearl Lattanzi | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 21.0% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.