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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+9.20vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.18+7.71vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.96vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.50+4.11vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.76+2.24vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.06+0.15vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-1.42vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.90+2.44vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.11+0.74vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.69+1.61vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.83-3.91vs Predicted
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12Princeton University2.35-2.87vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.63-1.55vs Predicted
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14Hampton University1.77-3.20vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.86-8.23vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University2.79-8.82vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia0.70-2.44vs Predicted
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18Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-0.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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9.71Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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7.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.11Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.24U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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6.15SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.58St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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10.44George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.74Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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11.61Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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7.09University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.13Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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11.45Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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10.8Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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6.77Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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7.18Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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14.56University of Virginia0.700.0%1st Place
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17.28Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 5.6% | 0.3% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Gavin McJones | 7.8% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 11.3% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 13.0% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 0.7% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 0.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 0.9% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Brian Fox | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 2.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 1.5% |
| Hayden Earl | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Montague | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 38.4% | 10.4% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 83.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.