← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.94vs Predicted
-
2SUNY Maritime College3.06+4.33vs Predicted
-
3University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.25vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy2.76+3.27vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University2.86+1.94vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.80vs Predicted
-
7Webb Institute1.69+4.45vs Predicted
-
8Georgetown University3.22-2.39vs Predicted
-
9Washington College2.11+0.86vs Predicted
-
10George Washington University1.90+0.93vs Predicted
-
11Old Dominion University2.18-1.30vs Predicted
-
12Fordham University2.50-3.32vs Predicted
-
13Hampton University1.77-2.05vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University2.35-5.34vs Predicted
-
15Christopher Newport University1.63-3.31vs Predicted
-
16University of Virginia0.70-1.39vs Predicted
-
17Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17+0.39vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-8.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.94St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
-
6.33SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
-
7.25University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
-
7.27U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
-
6.94Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
-
7.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
-
11.45Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
5.61Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
-
9.86Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
-
10.93George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
-
9.7Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
-
8.68Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
-
10.95Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
-
8.66Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
-
11.69Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
-
14.61University of Virginia0.700.0%1st Place
-
17.39Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
-
9.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 11.1% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.0% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gavin McJones | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Earl | 9.1% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 6.8% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 1.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.1% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 1.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 0.4% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 0.9% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Brian Fox | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 10.6% | 2.1% |
| Andrew Montague | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 37.8% | 9.9% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 8.0% | 83.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.