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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.06+4.72vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.22+3.24vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.76+3.99vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+1.44vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.90+4.97vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.83+0.86vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.69+3.94vs Predicted
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8Princeton University2.35+0.34vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-1.47vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.18-1.08vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-0.39vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.50-4.12vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.81-2.39vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.11-4.46vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.77-4.38vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.63-4.81vs Predicted
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17Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-0.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.72SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.24Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.99U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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5.44St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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9.97George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.86University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.94Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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8.34Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.92Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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10.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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7.88Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.61Cornell University1.810.0%1st Place
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9.54Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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10.62Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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11.19Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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16.57Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benton Amthor | 12.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.2% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gavin McJones | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 13.2% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 1.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 1.6% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 0.4% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 1.7% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 2.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 3.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 0.6% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 1.4% |
| Brian Fox | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 17.1% | 1.7% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 87.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.