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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.54+8.48vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.19+5.09vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.64vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.41vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.45+1.07vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+3.06vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.93+0.90vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.78vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.79+2.93vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.24+0.62vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.21+2.75vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-3.93vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.90-5.15vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia-0.43+1.22vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.03-7.50vs Predicted
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16Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-0.11vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.81-4.92vs Predicted
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18Princeton University0.34-4.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.48Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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7.09SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
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4.64St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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4.41U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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6.07Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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9.06St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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7.9Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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11.93Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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10.62Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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13.75Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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8.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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7.85Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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15.22University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.5University of Pennsylvania2.030.1%1st Place
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15.89Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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12.08Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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13.23Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everett Botwinick | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 14.9% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 17.8% | 16.0% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.5% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Grace | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 2.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 17.4% | 12.1% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 22.7% | 28.9% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 20.4% | 42.9% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 4.1% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 16.0% | 13.2% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.