← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.78vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University2.45+4.44vs Predicted
-
3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.71vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania2.35+2.59vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+4.20vs Predicted
-
6SUNY Maritime College2.19+1.26vs Predicted
-
7Cornell University1.93+1.12vs Predicted
-
8Webb Institute1.54+1.49vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.62vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University1.24+0.86vs Predicted
-
11Hampton University0.81+1.22vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-3.70vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University1.90-4.92vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University1.08-3.08vs Predicted
-
15Christopher Newport University0.79-2.85vs Predicted
-
16Washington College0.21-1.96vs Predicted
-
17University of Virginia-0.43-1.39vs Predicted
-
18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.78U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
6.44Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
-
4.71St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
6.59University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
-
9.2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
-
7.26SUNY Maritime College2.190.1%1st Place
-
8.12Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
-
9.49Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
-
6.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
-
10.86Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
-
12.22Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
-
8.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
-
8.08Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
-
10.92Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
-
12.15Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
-
14.04Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
-
15.61University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
-
15.84Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 14.3% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 15.0% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 4.3% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Asher Green | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| David Grace | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 3.3% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 18.2% | 17.1% | 13.7% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 13.6% | 24.6% | 34.4% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 10.9% | 24.3% | 40.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.