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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.45+5.54vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.93+6.37vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.78vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.54+5.52vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.90+3.19vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.36vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.35-0.30vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.53vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.35-2.40vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-1.66vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.79+1.42vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-2.31vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.24-2.37vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.21-0.13vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+1.16vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.08-4.63vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia0.06-2.39vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.81-5.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.37Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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4.78St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.52Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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8.19Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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4.64U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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6.7University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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6.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.6SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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8.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.1%1st Place
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12.42Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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9.69St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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10.63Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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13.87Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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16.16Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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11.37Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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14.61University of Virginia0.060.0%1st Place
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12.1Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Menditto | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 13.8% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 15.7% | 14.4% | 14.6% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| David Grace | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 6.2% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.3% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 15.1% | 21.4% | 12.5% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 17.0% | 50.6% |
| Asher Green | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
| Connor Lothrop | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 15.1% | 21.3% | 21.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.