Race 1B

mcsa-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Justin Skene 11.9% 12.4% 13.6% 10.0% 10.9% 10.9% 9.3% 7.9% 5.8% 4.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0%
Brody Schwartz 12.2% 12.8% 12.0% 13.0% 11.9% 8.9% 8.1% 9.7% 5.1% 3.5% 2.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Charlotte Kane 13.0% 13.3% 12.7% 12.5% 10.2% 10.7% 10.3% 6.6% 5.5% 3.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Dominique DeLano 5.0% 6.6% 5.7% 8.1% 8.1% 8.9% 9.3% 9.8% 12.7% 10.0% 9.2% 5.3% 1.3%
Brittany Shabino 6.7% 7.1% 6.7% 8.0% 9.3% 7.7% 8.5% 11.5% 10.7% 10.3% 8.0% 4.1% 1.4%
Meredith Moore 1.3% 1.4% 2.4% 2.2% 3.7% 3.1% 4.1% 4.6% 6.8% 9.2% 16.8% 23.3% 21.1%
Noah Hallerman 7.4% 7.0% 7.6% 8.0% 7.6% 9.2% 9.7% 10.5% 11.2% 9.9% 7.4% 3.6% 0.9%
Reid Kwiatkowski 1.3% 2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 3.5% 3.3% 3.7% 5.6% 8.7% 10.7% 15.7% 22.1% 18.4%
Matthew Beretta 8.7% 8.4% 8.4% 9.6% 8.9% 8.7% 11.8% 9.0% 8.7% 9.3% 5.8% 2.2% 0.5%
Nithya Balachander 19.6% 15.4% 14.6% 11.2% 10.1% 9.2% 7.2% 6.2% 2.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Noah Troyer 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 3.9% 3.4% 5.7% 4.6% 5.7% 9.3% 13.9% 17.0% 17.7% 12.4%
Conall Lynch 0.9% 0.5% 1.0% 2.5% 1.0% 2.5% 2.4% 3.9% 4.6% 7.9% 10.9% 18.5% 43.4%
Nick Myneni 10.0% 10.3% 10.7% 9.0% 11.4% 11.2% 11.0% 9.0% 8.2% 5.0% 2.4% 1.6% 0.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.