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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+6.80vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.96+7.64vs Predicted
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3Florida State University1.69+6.99vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+5.32vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.78+2.95vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.82+2.64vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.71+3.06vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.60-1.27vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.59+4.20vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.45-3.14vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.28-3.38vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-2.86vs Predicted
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130.68+0.73vs Predicted
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14Brown University2.22-3.80vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.00-1.58vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.68-9.11vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.17-5.63vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.77-9.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.5%1st Place
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9.64Cornell University1.965.1%1st Place
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9.99Florida State University1.694.0%1st Place
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9.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.7%1st Place
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7.95University of Rhode Island2.787.3%1st Place
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8.64George Washington University1.826.3%1st Place
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10.06Webb Institute1.714.5%1st Place
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6.73U. S. Naval Academy2.609.7%1st Place
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13.2Northeastern University1.591.7%1st Place
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6.86Harvard University2.458.8%1st Place
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7.62Tulane University2.287.9%1st Place
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9.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.315.1%1st Place
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13.730.681.7%1st Place
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10.2Brown University2.223.9%1st Place
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13.42Connecticut College1.002.2%1st Place
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6.89Roger Williams University2.689.2%1st Place
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11.37Eckerd College1.173.0%1st Place
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8.44University of Pennsylvania1.775.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Winborne Majette | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Peter Foley | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Calvin Schmid | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 14.8% | 19.5% |
| Robby Meek | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Holthus | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Jack Homa | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 14.4% | 26.2% |
| Mason Stang | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% |
| William Hurd | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 21.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Vieira | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.