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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.99+2.04vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+2.49vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.28+1.60vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.57vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.67+1.36vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.93+3.00vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.10+1.27vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.55+2.26vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+1.63vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.66+0.18vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-2.40vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.59-1.43vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.43-2.33vs Predicted
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14University of Victoria-0.32-0.86vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.01-2.75vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-0.32-2.50vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University0.17-5.14vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-1.43-1.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.04Stanford University2.990.3%1st Place
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4.49University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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4.6University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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7.57University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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6.36University of Southern California1.670.1%1st Place
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9.0California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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8.27University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.0%1st Place
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10.26University of Washington0.550.0%1st Place
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10.63University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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10.18University of California at Berkeley0.660.0%1st Place
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8.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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10.57Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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10.67Western Washington University0.430.0%1st Place
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13.14University of Victoria-0.320.0%1st Place
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12.25University of California at San Diego0.010.0%1st Place
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13.5University of California at Davis-0.320.0%1st Place
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11.86San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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16.02California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 26.8% | 23.7% | 15.3% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 12.6% | 14.2% | 15.6% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 13.5% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Davis Winsor | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Molly Coghlin | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Luu | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| George Soliman | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Will Cornell | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Kai Ponting | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Tyler Nolasco | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 2.3% |
| Nathan Lemke | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 11.2% |
| Svenja Leonard | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 5.9% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 18.3% | 12.7% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 4.8% |
| Rob Reigelman | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 55.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.