← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+3.60vs Predicted
-
2Stanford University2.99+1.02vs Predicted
-
3University of Hawaii2.28+1.63vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Barbara1.10+4.29vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.58vs Predicted
-
6University of Southern California1.67+0.42vs Predicted
-
7University of Washington0.55+3.37vs Predicted
-
8Western Washington University0.43+2.76vs Predicted
-
9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-0.58vs Predicted
-
10University of Victoria-0.32+3.57vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Berkeley0.66-0.88vs Predicted
-
12California Poly Maritime Academy0.93-2.77vs Predicted
-
13San Diego State University0.17-1.43vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego0.01-1.97vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-4.45vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Davis-0.32-2.54vs Predicted
-
17Arizona State University0.59-6.65vs Predicted
-
18California State University Channel Islands-1.43-1.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.6University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
-
3.02Stanford University2.990.3%1st Place
-
4.63University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
-
8.29University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.0%1st Place
-
7.58University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
-
6.42University of Southern California1.670.1%1st Place
-
10.37University of Washington0.550.0%1st Place
-
10.76Western Washington University0.430.0%1st Place
-
8.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
-
13.57University of Victoria-0.320.0%1st Place
-
10.12University of California at Berkeley0.660.0%1st Place
-
9.23California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
-
11.57San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
-
12.03University of California at San Diego0.010.0%1st Place
-
10.55University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
-
13.46University of California at Davis-0.320.0%1st Place
-
10.35Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
-
16.04California State University Channel Islands-1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kayda | 14.8% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 26.7% | 24.5% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 12.9% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Coghlin | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Davis Winsor | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Luu | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Tyler Nolasco | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.2% |
| Kai Ponting | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Lemke | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 18.4% | 13.7% |
| Will Cornell | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Ryan Downey | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 3.9% |
| Svenja Leonard | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 5.9% |
| George Soliman | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Sean von Engelbrechten | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 18.2% | 11.9% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Rob Reigelman | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 54.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.