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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+0.97vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+4.14vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.70+2.25vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.53+1.56vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.38+4.42vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.32+3.78vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+2.44vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-2.08vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.64-0.44vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-0.80vs Predicted
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11University of Victoria-0.40+1.41vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.50-2.60vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51-0.47vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-0.24-2.50vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-0.72-1.69vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University-0.00-4.94vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University-0.54-4.11vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-2.28-1.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.97Stanford University3.390.5%1st Place
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6.14University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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5.25University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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5.56University of Hawaii1.530.1%1st Place
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9.42University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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9.78Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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9.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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5.92California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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8.56University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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9.2University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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12.41University of Victoria-0.400.0%1st Place
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9.4University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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12.53University of California at Santa Barbara-0.510.0%1st Place
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11.5University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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13.31University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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11.06Western Washington University-0.000.0%1st Place
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12.89San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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16.66California State University Channel Islands-2.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 49.0% | 24.3% | 14.7% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 4.5% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 7.7% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trey Summers | 8.7% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Max Case | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Clay Myers | 6.6% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Ilya Sharikov | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 5.0% |
| Noah Barton | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Ariana Fernandez | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 5.5% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 20.2% | 7.5% |
| Leopold Sabharwal | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 1.9% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 6.4% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 11.4% | 68.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.