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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+1.01vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.70+3.30vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.14vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+1.89vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.38+4.48vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University-0.00+5.00vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.53-1.38vs Predicted
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8University of Victoria-0.40+4.22vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.32+0.74vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.64-1.18vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-1.54vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-2.69vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.54-0.38vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.50-5.12vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51-2.37vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-0.72-2.56vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley-0.24-5.15vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-2.28-1.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.01Stanford University3.390.5%1st Place
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5.3University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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6.14University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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5.89California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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9.48University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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11.0Western Washington University-0.000.0%1st Place
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5.62University of Hawaii1.530.1%1st Place
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12.22University of Victoria-0.400.0%1st Place
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9.74Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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8.82University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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9.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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9.31University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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12.62San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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8.88University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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12.63University of California at Santa Barbara-0.510.0%1st Place
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13.44University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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11.85University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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16.61California State University Channel Islands-2.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 46.7% | 27.3% | 13.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 6.5% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 5.9% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 7.8% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Leopold Sabharwal | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 1.8% |
| Trey Summers | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ilya Sharikov | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 3.8% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 5.8% |
| Noah Barton | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Ariana Fernandez | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 5.3% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 17.2% | 9.8% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 3.0% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 10.8% | 67.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.