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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+5.12vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+4.12vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.38+6.70vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University-0.00+6.80vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.39-3.04vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.50+3.10vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.70-1.83vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.32+1.66vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.64-0.41vs Predicted
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10University of Victoria-0.40+2.54vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii1.53-5.26vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.24-0.02vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-4.18vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51-1.61vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-5.59vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-0.54-3.18vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-0.72-3.57vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-2.28-1.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.12University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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6.12California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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9.7University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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10.8Western Washington University-0.000.0%1st Place
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1.96Stanford University3.390.5%1st Place
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9.1University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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5.17University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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9.66Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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8.59University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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12.54University of Victoria-0.400.0%1st Place
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5.74University of Hawaii1.530.1%1st Place
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11.98University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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8.82University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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12.39University of California at Santa Barbara-0.510.0%1st Place
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9.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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12.82San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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13.43University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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16.65California State University Channel Islands-2.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 6.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 5.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Leopold Sabharwal | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 2.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 49.6% | 24.7% | 14.0% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Grant Janov | 8.4% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Morgana Manti | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ilya Sharikov | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 4.0% |
| Trey Summers | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 3.9% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Ariana Fernandez | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 5.5% |
| Max Case | 2.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Morgan Burton | 0.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 6.2% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 18.9% | 9.3% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 12.6% | 66.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.