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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+1.02vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.64+6.81vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+3.08vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.50+4.99vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+0.96vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.70-0.79vs Predicted
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7University of Washington0.38+2.53vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+0.93vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51+3.70vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.53-4.23vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.24+0.83vs Predicted
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12University of Victoria-0.40+0.62vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-3.73vs Predicted
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14Western Washington University-0.00-3.37vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University0.32-5.30vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-0.54-3.15vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-0.72-3.54vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-2.28-1.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.02Stanford University3.390.5%1st Place
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8.81University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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6.08California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
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8.99University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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5.96University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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5.21University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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9.53University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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8.93University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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12.7University of California at Santa Barbara-0.510.0%1st Place
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5.77University of Hawaii1.530.1%1st Place
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11.83University of California at Berkeley-0.240.0%1st Place
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12.62University of Victoria-0.400.0%1st Place
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9.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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10.63Western Washington University-0.000.0%1st Place
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9.7Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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12.85San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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13.46University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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16.65California State University Channel Islands-2.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 46.3% | 26.4% | 15.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Clay Myers | 5.6% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Ted McDonough | 7.2% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 8.8% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Ariana Fernandez | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 4.8% |
| Trey Summers | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 3.9% |
| Ilya Sharikov | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 5.0% |
| Max Case | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Leopold Sabharwal | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Morgan Burton | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 7.1% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 14.9% | 19.8% | 8.3% |
| Kitana Barrus | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 13.2% | 66.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.