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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.62+3.57vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+3.92vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.06+6.73vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University2.01+2.16vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College1.70+2.21vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.11-0.07vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.01-0.77vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.59+3.05vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-0.83vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-2.33vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.35-5.68vs Predicted
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12University of Hawaii0.92-1.76vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.54-1.86vs Predicted
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14Oregon State University-0.31-0.31vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.07-2.20vs Predicted
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16Santa Clara University-1.04-0.30vs Predicted
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17University of Southern California-0.27-3.11vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley-1.06-2.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.57Georgetown University2.620.2%1st Place
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5.92St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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9.73University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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6.16North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.21Eckerd College1.700.1%1st Place
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5.93University of Vermont2.110.1%1st Place
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6.23Roger Williams University2.010.1%1st Place
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11.05Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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8.17University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
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7.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.1%1st Place
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5.32George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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10.24University of Hawaii0.920.0%1st Place
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11.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.540.0%1st Place
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13.69Oregon State University-0.310.0%1st Place
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12.8Northwestern University0.070.0%1st Place
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15.7Santa Clara University-1.040.0%1st Place
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13.89University of Southern California-0.270.0%1st Place
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15.57University of California at Berkeley-1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Cook | 15.7% | 15.1% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bashaw | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Adam Larson | 10.2% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| matthew Monts | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connell Phillipps | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Roman | 9.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Ted McDonough | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Timms | 13.2% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikhil Stewart | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Jack Farrell | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Liam Brinton | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 16.1% | 10.0% |
| Matthew Beretta | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% |
| will dimaio | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 22.4% | 35.6% |
| Jackson McKinley | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 17.8% | 15.7% | 11.7% |
| Tessa Greene | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 22.7% | 33.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.