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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.55+3.58vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+5.08vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.54+4.90vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College1.12+5.08vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.11+0.71vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.06-0.09vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-0.35vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.67-0.81vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles1.30-0.47vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.09-0.46vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University1.33-2.41vs Predicted
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12George Washington University0.89-1.71vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.32-4.68vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University-1.11+1.28vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-1.54+1.14vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08-6.61vs Predicted
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17Oregon State University-1.63-0.68vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-0.75-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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7.08University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
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7.9North Carolina State University1.540.1%1st Place
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9.08Eckerd College1.120.0%1st Place
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5.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.110.1%1st Place
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5.91Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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6.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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7.19University of Southern California1.670.1%1st Place
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8.53University of California at Los Angeles1.300.0%1st Place
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9.54University of Hawaii1.090.0%1st Place
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8.59Northwestern University1.330.1%1st Place
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10.29George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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8.32University of Vermont1.320.1%1st Place
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15.28Santa Clara University-1.110.0%1st Place
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16.14University of California at Berkeley-1.540.0%1st Place
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9.39St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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16.32Oregon State University-1.630.0%1st Place
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14.51Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 15.5% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Usher | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Richardson | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emma Snead | 12.8% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Higham | 11.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Tillson | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Davis Winsor | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Delaney Smith | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 14.4% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Vodzak | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 13.2% | 23.1% | 24.8% | 16.6% |
| Viola Phillips Frank | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 7.7% | 18.6% | 26.6% | 33.7% |
| Max Kleha | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Quincy Spurlock | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 6.8% | 15.2% | 25.5% | 39.9% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 21.3% | 22.6% | 19.2% | 9.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.