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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.10+2.38vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.09+1.50vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.73+1.00vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02+1.10vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.58-3.27vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-1.13+0.32vs Predicted
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7University of Washington0.62-2.85vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy-3.31-0.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.38University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.1%1st Place
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3.5University of Hawaii1.090.1%1st Place
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4.0University of California at Berkeley0.730.1%1st Place
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5.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.0%1st Place
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1.73Stanford University2.580.5%1st Place
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6.32University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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4.15University of Washington0.620.1%1st Place
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7.81California Poly Maritime Academy-3.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly Coghlin | 12.6% | 20.9% | 21.7% | 19.2% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 11.4% | 17.6% | 22.1% | 21.4% | 15.7% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 8.3% | 13.3% | 16.3% | 20.1% | 21.4% | 15.2% | 5.2% | 0.2% |
| Florence Duff | 4.1% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 17.6% | 31.5% | 18.6% | 1.8% |
| Sophie Fisher | 54.7% | 26.3% | 12.5% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 0.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 8.8% | 16.6% | 56.2% | 8.2% |
| Erin Pamplin | 7.9% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 19.3% | 20.7% | 15.8% | 8.5% | 0.5% |
| Cianna Coyle | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 89.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.