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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles-1.38+4.46vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz-0.83+1.96vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.13+4.67vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.68-0.20vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07-0.20vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-2.05+1.66vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.78+2.34vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-2.26vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-2.32-0.67vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.71-3.44vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-2.34-3.60vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-3.78-1.02vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-3.28-3.17vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-3.16-4.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.46University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.1%1st Place
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3.96University of California at Santa Cruz-0.830.2%1st Place
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7.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.130.0%1st Place
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3.8University of California at San Diego-0.680.2%1st Place
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4.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.1%1st Place
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7.66University of California at San Diego-2.050.0%1st Place
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9.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.780.0%1st Place
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5.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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8.33University of California at San Diego-2.320.0%1st Place
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6.56University of California at San Diego-1.710.1%1st Place
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8.4University of California at Santa Cruz-2.340.0%1st Place
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11.98Arizona State University-3.780.0%1st Place
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10.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-3.280.0%1st Place
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10.46University of California at Davis-3.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conrad Kistler | 9.3% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Dante Massaro | 18.8% | 16.4% | 15.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Walden Hillegass | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Sebastien Franck | 19.2% | 18.6% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 11.7% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Alexis Di Stefano | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 8.2% |
| Nathan Briar | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Nodini | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% |
| Ian Johnston | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Maximus Suh | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.1% |
| Gillian Cate | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 18.5% | 43.1% |
| Kelli Wilkes | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 18.9% | 22.5% |
| Bryson Dort | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 21.7% | 14.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.