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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego-1.71+5.44vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+2.58vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-0.68+0.75vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-2.05+3.50vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.78+4.63vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-2.32+2.41vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.83-3.04vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-2.34+0.24vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-3.38vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.13-2.15vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-5.17vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-3.16-1.40vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-3.78-2.18vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-3.28-4.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.44University of California at San Diego-1.710.1%1st Place
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4.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.1%1st Place
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3.75University of California at San Diego-0.680.2%1st Place
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7.5University of California at San Diego-2.050.0%1st Place
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9.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.780.0%1st Place
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8.41University of California at San Diego-2.320.0%1st Place
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3.96University of California at Santa Cruz-0.830.2%1st Place
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8.24University of California at Santa Cruz-2.340.0%1st Place
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5.62University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.1%1st Place
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7.85Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.130.0%1st Place
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5.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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10.6University of California at Davis-3.160.0%1st Place
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11.82Arizona State University-3.780.0%1st Place
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10.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.-3.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Johnston | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 13.8% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sebastien Franck | 19.9% | 19.4% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| Alexis Di Stefano | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 15.8% | 9.8% |
| Michael Nodini | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 3.7% |
| Dante Massaro | 18.6% | 18.7% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maximus Suh | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 3.5% |
| Conrad Kistler | 9.4% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Walden Hillegass | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Nathan Briar | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Bryson Dort | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 14.9% | 18.8% |
| Gillian Cate | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 17.5% | 41.6% |
| Kelli Wilkes | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 22.4% | 18.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.