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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego-1.71+5.40vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.68+1.64vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+1.70vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-2.05+3.57vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.83-0.80vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-2.32+2.42vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.13+0.50vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-3.28+2.74vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-3.39vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-4.17vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-2.34-2.59vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.78-2.42vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-3.16-3.49vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-3.78-3.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.4University of California at San Diego-1.710.1%1st Place
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3.64University of California at San Diego-0.680.2%1st Place
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4.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.1%1st Place
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7.57University of California at San Diego-2.050.0%1st Place
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4.2University of California at Santa Cruz-0.830.1%1st Place
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8.42University of California at San Diego-2.320.0%1st Place
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7.5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.130.0%1st Place
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10.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-3.280.0%1st Place
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5.61University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.1%1st Place
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5.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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8.41University of California at Santa Cruz-2.340.0%1st Place
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9.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.780.0%1st Place
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10.51University of California at Davis-3.160.0%1st Place
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11.88Arizona State University-3.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Johnston | 7.1% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Sebastien Franck | 22.1% | 17.9% | 15.1% | 14.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 13.9% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Dante Massaro | 14.9% | 17.2% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Michael Nodini | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 4.1% |
| Walden Hillegass | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 1.1% |
| Kelli Wilkes | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 19.0% | 22.6% |
| Conrad Kistler | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Briar | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Maximus Suh | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 3.8% |
| Alexis Di Stefano | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 15.5% | 13.4% | 8.1% |
| Bryson Dort | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 21.1% | 15.9% |
| Gillian Cate | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 17.8% | 41.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.