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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego-2.05+6.39vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.68+1.66vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-1.71+3.44vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+0.71vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.13+2.81vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.83-1.82vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-3.16+3.33vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-2.24vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-3.38vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-2.32-1.63vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-2.34-2.55vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-3.28-2.12vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.78-4.46vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-3.78-3.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.39University of California at San Diego-2.050.1%1st Place
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3.66University of California at San Diego-0.680.2%1st Place
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6.44University of California at San Diego-1.710.1%1st Place
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4.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.1%1st Place
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7.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.130.0%1st Place
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4.18University of California at Santa Cruz-0.830.2%1st Place
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10.33University of California at Davis-3.160.0%1st Place
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5.76Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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5.62University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.1%1st Place
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8.37University of California at San Diego-2.320.0%1st Place
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8.45University of California at Santa Cruz-2.340.0%1st Place
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10.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.-3.280.0%1st Place
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9.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.780.0%1st Place
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11.87Arizona State University-3.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McCrystal | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Sebastien Franck | 20.7% | 18.4% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 12.9% | 15.1% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Walden Hillegass | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Dante Massaro | 15.5% | 16.6% | 15.6% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bryson Dort | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 17.5% | 17.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Conrad Kistler | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Nodini | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.8% |
| Maximus Suh | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 4.0% |
| Kelli Wilkes | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 15.4% | 19.6% | 20.7% |
| Alexis Di Stefano | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 7.6% |
| Gillian Cate | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 17.3% | 41.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.