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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.06+3.62vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California0.64+3.61vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+1.64vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.07+3.44vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.70-1.73vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02+1.83vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.79-1.87vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91+2.07vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.55+0.26vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.99+2.49vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.32-4.26vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.50-2.92vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-3.73vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.72-4.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.62University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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5.61University of Southern California0.640.1%1st Place
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4.64Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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7.44University of California at Berkeley0.070.0%1st Place
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3.27University of California at Los Angeles1.700.2%1st Place
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7.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.0%1st Place
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5.13University of California at San Diego0.790.1%1st Place
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10.07University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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9.26University of California at Berkeley-0.550.0%1st Place
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12.49University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
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6.74Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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9.08University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
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9.27University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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9.55University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marianna Shand | 13.7% | 14.0% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Morgana Manti | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Kai Ponting | 13.9% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Cremers | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| Grant Janov | 23.7% | 21.7% | 16.6% | 12.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 11.2% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 19.5% | 12.6% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 6.3% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 15.9% | 55.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 6.5% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 6.2% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 12.8% | 8.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.