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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+3.62vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.06+2.44vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.70+0.13vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.79+1.36vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.64+0.91vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-0.72+3.82vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University0.32-0.58vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.55+1.12vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02-1.27vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.50-0.81vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91-0.76vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.07-4.60vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-3.75vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.99-1.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.62Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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4.44University of California at Los Angeles1.060.2%1st Place
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3.13University of California at Los Angeles1.700.3%1st Place
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5.36University of California at San Diego0.790.1%1st Place
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5.91University of Southern California0.640.1%1st Place
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9.82University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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6.42Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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9.12University of California at Berkeley-0.550.0%1st Place
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7.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.0%1st Place
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9.19University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
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10.24University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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7.4University of California at Berkeley0.070.0%1st Place
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9.25University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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12.38University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Ponting | 12.4% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 14.9% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 15.7% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 27.0% | 20.3% | 16.1% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 8.7% | 10.2% | 14.9% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 16.0% | 10.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 7.4% |
| Florence Duff | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 12.0% | 5.2% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 18.2% | 12.9% |
| Enzo Cremers | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 6.2% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 54.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.