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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.70+2.21vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.06+2.47vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+1.59vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.64+1.83vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.79+0.48vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02+1.77vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University0.32-0.64vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.07-0.64vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91+1.23vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.50-0.79vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-1.58vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.99+0.47vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.55-3.92vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.72-4.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.21University of California at Los Angeles1.700.3%1st Place
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4.47University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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4.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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5.83University of Southern California0.640.1%1st Place
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5.48University of California at San Diego0.790.1%1st Place
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7.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.1%1st Place
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6.36Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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7.36University of California at Berkeley0.070.1%1st Place
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10.23University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
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9.42University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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12.47University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
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9.08University of California at Berkeley-0.550.0%1st Place
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9.52University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Janov | 25.6% | 23.3% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 14.0% | 15.5% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 13.7% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 6.8% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 8.4% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Florence Duff | 5.0% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Matt Grimsley | 8.4% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Enzo Cremers | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Jonas Holdenried | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 18.5% | 13.0% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 6.8% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 7.2% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 15.4% | 55.1% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 6.3% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 14.8% | 15.4% | 7.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.