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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+7.71vs Predicted
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2University of California at Davis-0.93+6.49vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California-0.10+3.15vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+0.74vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.50-0.43vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.30-3.06vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.66+0.63vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.64-0.19vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-0.90-0.30vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.90-1.29vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-0.11vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.11-6.39vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-1.23-3.51vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.62-3.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.71University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.0%1st Place
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8.49University of California at Davis-0.930.0%1st Place
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6.15University of Southern California-0.100.1%1st Place
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4.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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4.57University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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2.94University of California at Los Angeles1.300.3%1st Place
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7.63University of California at Berkeley-0.660.1%1st Place
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7.81University of California at San Diego-0.640.1%1st Place
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8.7Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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8.71University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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10.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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5.61University of California at Los Angeles0.110.1%1st Place
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9.49University of California at Berkeley-1.230.0%1st Place
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10.56University of California at Los Angeles-1.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Elliott | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 7.1% |
| Jonah Brees | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% |
| Edward Ansart | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Max Case | 10.4% | 15.9% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 12.9% | 15.0% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 30.1% | 21.0% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Jacobs | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| Amanda Brooks | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.5% |
| Mitchell Powers | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 15.7% | 29.4% |
| Zack Taylor | 8.8% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Max Lawall | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 11.0% |
| samson grunwald | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 17.6% | 22.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.