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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.06+3.73vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+1.83vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.15+1.58vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.58+2.06vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.62+0.78vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy1.12-1.43vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University-1.01+2.96vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.65-2.25vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.13+1.34vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.43-1.30vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-0.90-1.27vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.55-2.82vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02-5.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.73University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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3.83University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.2%1st Place
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4.58University of Hawaii1.150.1%1st Place
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6.06University of Southern California0.580.1%1st Place
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5.78University of Washington0.620.1%1st Place
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4.57California Poly Maritime Academy1.120.1%1st Place
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9.96Western Washington University-1.010.0%1st Place
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5.75University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.1%1st Place
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10.34University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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8.7University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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9.73Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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9.18University of California at Berkeley-0.550.0%1st Place
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7.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marianna Shand | 14.1% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 19.2% | 17.2% | 16.2% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 12.6% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Marlo Bozza | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Erin Pamplin | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Maxwell Roth | 14.6% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Anna Morrow | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 19.5% | 23.6% |
| Colin Olson | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 17.7% | 30.7% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 10.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| Adrien Stroumza | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 16.6% | 17.0% | 11.2% |
| Florence Duff | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.